LEVELS AND FLOWS - 101-YEAR SUPPLY SEQUENCES
Water Supply Sequences Descriptions
Water supply sequences represent patterns in the amount of water flowing into the Lake Ontario St. Lawrence River Basin. Candidate, reference, and interest specific regulation plans were evaluated using a variety of measured and statistically generated water supply sequences including:
- Historical – a 101-year sequence based on actual measured water supplies between 1900 and 2000
- Full 50,000-year stochastic – a statistically generated supply sequence based on measured supplies between 1900 and 2000
Four Extreme Supply Sequences
- S1 – An extremely dry 101-year sequence selected from the full 50,000-year stochastic supplies
- S2 – An extremely wet 101-year sequence selected from the full 50,000-year stochastic supplies
- S3 – A 101-year sequence similar to historical selected from the full 50,000-year stochastic supplies
- S4 – A 101-year sequence with the longest drought in the full 50,000-year stochastic supplies
Four Climate Change Supply Sequences
- C1 – A warm and dry 101-year sequence based on the climate change analysis
- C2 – A not as warm but dry 101-year sequence based on the climate change analysis
- C3 – A warm and wet 101-year sequence based on the climate change analysis
- C4 – A not as warm but wet 101-year sequence based on the climate change analysis
The graphs on this page show the five-year moving average net total supplies (NTS) for the various 101-year evaluation sequences (historical, 4 stochastic, and 4 climate change). The historical NTS sequence is included with the four stochastic centuries. These graphs are a good way to view the range and variability of the supplies for the different 101-year sequences. Select either stochastic or climate change from the drop down menu and click "View Graph Now!" to see the results.
