||Consequences of trends
|Coastal above the dam
value of affected properties approximately $5 billion based on 25,000
properties. Approximately 60% of the shoreline is developed. From Niagara to the east side of Toronto
there is approximately 90% protection.
Lake Ontario/Upper St. Lawrence River PIs: 1) LO-Flooding damage -
The economic damages to developed properties based on high water levels;
2) LO Erosion of Developed Parcels - This PI quantifies damage based
on the cost of adding shore protection once the shoreline is within
a defined distance from the house - value of lost material is not
determined; 3) LO Damage to Shore Protection - The cost of replacing
shore protection damaged by water levels
||Erosion PI: Assume riparian
land owners will continue to armour the properties and regulatory
authorities will continue to let them. Flooding PI:
Assume riparian doesn't do anything to address future flood
risk since assessing 101, one year experiments.
This is necessary to properly assess damage potential. Shore
Protection: Assume that once a structure fails due to a storm event during
high lake levels or simply degrades due to age, the riparian will
fix the structure. Assume the walls/revetments are built on the same
|Erosion PI: Assumed the riparian will accept the least
costly alternative to adapt to erosion risk.
This is comparable to others (light loading for shipping).
Flooding PI: Running the algorithm without adaptive behavior is necessary
to compare to Lower River and other performance indicators. Shore
Protection PI: Similar procedures upstream and downstream.
PI: erosion impacts quantified by cost of shore protection. Have not
included the value of land lost to these developed properties. Shore
Protection: in theory, you can simply build bigger and higher shore
protection to address future hazards. However, at some point the increased
height of the shore protection affects the quality of life associated
with waterfront ownership. Lost aesthetics and access to the waters edge due to shore protection structures are
secondary impact not considered.
land owners now live in coastal hazard areas and future development
of new parcels will continue for residential or commercial uses.
||Increase in shoreline
development from 1990 to 2000 of approximately 6% expected to continue.
Shoreline property values have doubled in the past decade. Small homes/cottages
being converted to much larger homes.
development means potential
for greater damages. Existing protection has been built to current
people have adapted to both high and low water level conditions. During
highs and after flooding and erosion events they generally take action
to protect themselves from future events by floodproofing their homes
or building or improving their shore protection. During extended lows
there is a tendency to encroach on the shoreline.
||Approx. 600 homes
are at imminent risk to losses from flooding and erosion.
||Test impact of 80%
shoreline development. Test impact of adaptations (flood proofing,
improved shore protection)
Zuzek; Reviewed by TWG co-chairs.
|Coastal below the dam
3% of shoreline is developed. Development is isolated to Montreal,
Sorel, Trois-Rivières, Longueuil and Repentigny. Sorel Islands have
extensive seasonal development. In 2003, the existing residences had
an approximate total value of 460 million dollars CAD. There are over
400 km of shore protection along the St. Lawrence River downstream
of Cornwall representing an infrastructure investment of over $200
St. Lawrence River Economic PIs include 1) LSL Flooding - damages
associated with high water levels; 2) LSL Erosion -The dollar value
of land lost due to erosion; and 3) LSL shore protection - The cost
of replacing shore protection damaged by water levels. Non-Economic
PIs include: LSL Erosion below dam - Area
of land lost; LSL Flooding below dam - Number of Expropriated Homes;Kilometres
of roads flooded; and Area of flooded land.
|Shore Protection: Assume
that once a structure fails due to a storm event during high
lake levels or simply degrades due to age, the riparian will fix the
structure. Assume the walls/revetments are built on the
on existing ship traffic in the St. Lawrence River (causing erosion).
Models based on existing development. Assumes no adaptations by riparians
such as flood proofing.
of cottages to permanent dwellings. Construction of cottages on vacant
land. Natural protected areas not at risk of development. Since1980,
several laws and regulations have been progressively implemented for
the management of construction within the floodplain.
see some increase in damages, but not considerable as no major changes
to shoreline development are expected in the near future. Existing
houses are expected to become better protected over the years.
are numerous (how many?)
properties just slightly above the floodline. Any increase in peak
levels will see increase damages.
required as little change in development is expected.
million spent on boating
related trips in 2002; 133,000 US boaters; 177,000 Cdn boaters; Operate
in warm-weather months (April through Nov). Rural portions of Lake
Ontario, Thousand Islands and Lake St. Pierre very dependent on tourism
related to rec. boating. Most sensitive to low water conditions.
economic benefits lost by recreational boaters and charter boat patrons
as water level varies from ideal levels for boating
||Population includes all boaters who used Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence
River from principal US
underestimate US by 36%. Cdn
includes all boaters withih basin, but not few living outside. Assumes boaters behave consistently
with stage damage curves. Assumes boaters don't move to another area
during time of water level problems. TWG believes dollars may be somewhat
understated, but not to a large degree.
benefits lost based on willingness to pay data. This method is sometimes
criticized due to hypothetical nature. Methods used approved by resource
economists and survey researchers.
Defined and eliminated outlier estimates and asked boater if numbers
they gave were inflated.
||Of the $178 million in total U.S. expenditures, $68 million resulted
from tourist-related spending. Using IMPLAN
to estimate indirect and induced impacts, total output from tourist-related
spending was $96 million. Two-thirds
of this tourist-related spending occurred
in the Jefferson-St. Lawrence County region. Tourism activity was
not measured in Canada.
economic conditions similar to recent past and no major rises in gas
prices. Based on Willingness to Pay.
of US boaters increased 10% between 1994 and 2002. Number of boats in Quebec increased 22% between 1995 and 2000. Trend towards slightly larger, faster boats.
are loyal to boating and unlikely to leave the sport. They will adjust
to changing economic conditions and gas prices likely
by varying the number of trips taken.
have adjusted to high water levels with construction of floating docks.
Dredging is most common adaptive behavior for low levels. Can take
up to two years to implement due to
costs and difficulty in obtaining permits. Not
feasibile for private dock owners.
Some, especially those using boat launch ramps, can
adapt by going elsewhere (inland lakes and rivers). Over extended
lows boaters may adjust by buying smaller boats.
risk with water levels below the critical levels of the stage damage
curves. Biggest gains in having higher levels in the fall.
impact of a 25% increase in rec. boating numbers. Test impacts of
adaptive behaviors to numbers.
Brown, J-F Bibeault, N. Connelly and J. Brown. Reviewed by co-authors.
Received TWG support Jan 18, 2005. Reviewed by Frank Lupi
||Marine commerce on
the Great Lakes / Seaway System each year generates more than $4.3
billion in personal income, $3.4 billion in transportation-related
business revenue and $1.3 billion in federal, state and local taxes.
Over 30 million tones per year, representing some 3300 ship movements
move annually through the Montréal-Lake Ontario section of the system.
About 85% of total tonnage consists in iron ore, coal, limestone and
great. Montreal Habour is the most important container harbour in
Canada and one of the most important in North America.
||Total cost of transportation
between Becancour, Quebec and Port Weller Ontario. Transportation
costs include vessel capital and operating costs, fuel costs, seaway
tolls, piliotage charges and Canadian Coast Guard fees. Cost curves
were derived for each QM for 3 sections (LO, Seaway, below Montreal.
Costs related to three factors: costs due to ship transits , costs
due to currents and costs due to high gradient delays.
||Uses the 1995-1999
commercial navigation traffic as representative of commercial activities,
cargo and vessel mix. Assumes vessels resume navigation simultaneously
after a gradient or current delay.
||Does not consider
secondary impacts to Port economics or to the consumer.
||Based on existing
Seaway size and depth. Assumes existing fleet composition. Based on
actual vessel transit data from 1995-1999. Assumes Seaway operating
at 50% capacity.
||Vessel size and
draft has increased substantially over past 40 years. Vessels of up
to 225 m and 23.8 m beam now regularly transit the system. Vessel
draft has increased to 8.8 m (26'6")
||Difficult to determine
if this sector is increasing or deteriorating. If Seaway changes,
all analysis must be redone.
||Reduced vessel speed;
light load (more ships, more trips); deepen channels and harbors (requires
||PI won't get at importance
of consistent water levels over extreme fluctuations. Need to use
criteria metrics for this. Montreal Harbor has already exhibited a
shift to larger sized vessels.
||If navigation were
eliminated, releases would not change much since recreational boating
and M&I targets would remain, and are higher. Exceptions when special releases are made to help overloaded ships
transit, but this would have little effect on average annual damages.
||Luc Lefevbre and
Ontario coastal marshes provide breeding and feeding grounds for all
coastal life, including several species-at-risk.
Water level patterns have a direct physical influence on the
breeding and nesting success of marsh birds and fish that inhabit
the marshes. More varied water levels create more variety in marsh
plants, which creates a more productive and robust coastal ecology
and habitat. Water levels below the dam can strand or drown fish and
bird eggs. Societal value expressed through laws protecting habitat
(i.e., wetlands) and specific faunal species (special interest or
Key Performance Indicators (1- Lake Ont Veg, 5-Lake Ont Fish, 1-Lake
Ont Birds, 4-Lake Ont Species at Risk, 6 USL Fish, 1 USL Bird, 1 USL
Mammal, 3-LSL Fish, 4 LSL Birds, 1 LSL Herptiles,
1 LSL Mammals, 4 LSL Species at Risk)
existing population densities. Do not account for all interactions
within food chain, nor secondary impacts (e.g. impacts to sport fishery).
Do not take into account other stressors on the system (e.g. pollution,
invasive species). Studies based on field investigation (2-3 years)
and literature reviews. Assumes existing Seaway configuration.
PIs are not fungible with economic PIs. Within Environmental PIs all
are developed using different metrics. Measures of improvement have
been converted into ratios of improvement relative to the baseline
1958DD. These cannot be added or averaged. They can be used to determine
if one plan is better than another. The ETWG is working on a weighting
system for the environmental PIs based on the certainly, sensitivity
impacts relative to the environmental performance indicators include
impacts to the fishing industry, to hunting, bird watching and ecotourism.
Secondary impacts to ecosystem function such as water quality benefits
supplied by wetlands has not been addressed.
existing Seaway configuration. Assume existing population densities.
Do not account for all interactions within food chain, nor secondary
impacts (e.g. impacts to sport fishery). Do not take into account
other stressors on the system (e.g. pollution, invasive species).
Studies based on field investigation (2-3 years) and literature reviews.
towards containerization. Ontario plans to close coal-based power
plants (no need to ship coal). Growth is North- South while Seaway
is east-west. Aging infrastructure. Fewer Seaway sized
ocean vessels. Seaway navigation study underway.
other stressors, it may be difficult to determine if expected improvements
to the environment from changes to a regulation plan will be realized.
environment is adaptable to change. However, many of the human induced
alterations of the system have affected natures ability to adapt.
For example, on the lower St. Lawrence River wetlands were once able
to adapt to high water levels conditions by migrating upland, however
with the development of farmland on the upland side of wetlands this
ability to adapt has been bounded by development. Anthropogenic adaptations
have also taken place to try to rehabilitate natural functions. Wetlands
have been dyked, fisheries stocked, and man-made wetlands have been
engineered. These activities have had mixed success.
PI studies are based on short term data gathering (2-3 years) which
may not be sufficient to accurately estimate impacts.
on which factors drive plan formulation, a sensitivity analysis will
be conducted to establish whether or not adaptive management is necessary.
by New York Power Authority, Ontario Power Generation and Hydro Quebec.
Annual Hydropower production of approx. 25 million Mwh (13 million
Mwh at Moses-Saunders and 12 million Mwh at Beauharnois-Les Cedres).
Market value of energy produced is approx. $1.5 billion (US) at current
market rates. Enough energy produced is produced for consumption of
approx. 2 million homes. All three companies operate in different
market environments. NYPA works under a competitive market and price
is determined by the most expensive block of power per hour. OPG works
under a real-time wholesale pricing structure based on both regulated
and market prices based on daily forecasted demand. Hydro Quebec operates
under a regulated system based on the lowest possible cost. Up to
165 TWh of electricity per year must be supplied to service Quebec
residents and anything above this can be sold at market prices.
Performance indicators are used 1) Value of energy produced based
on station head, flow, efficiency rate and price of electricity. 2)
Cost of Foregone Peaking Opportunities (NYPA and OPG only)
based on weekly averaged regulated release and value of peaking
opportunity, and 3) Predictability/Stability of flows to maximize
efficiency based on changes in flow and foregone energy production.
market prices on a seasonal basis based on a consultant report (Synapse).
Market prices are difficult to estimate as they are based on fuel
prices, technology, environmental factors, and electricity demand.
impacts are reported in terms of average annual net dollar benefits
and are fungible with other net benefits.
production provides approx. 2000 high paying manufacturing jobs to
the local economy in New York. Hydro provides low cost electricity
to the ALCOA Aluminum Recycling Plant and GM Powetrain production
facility in Massena which contributes over $250 million
annually in payroll, taxes and purchases to the local economy.
Secondary impacts to the local economies of the region are not addressed
by the current PIs. Secondary impacts to air quality is not being
addressed. If St. Lawrence River hydro production were replaced by
fossil fuels another contribute 18,000,000 tons of CO2 would be discharged
annually to the atmosphere.
a market similar to today's with the same mix of energy producers
and same influence of the navigational needs of the St. Lawrence Seaway.
and New York State air quality laws are expected to reduce coal fired
energy production and further limit control emissions from fossil
fueled generation which will affect the electricity supply market.
In Canada, the Province of Ontario has announced its intent to reduce
coal fired generation by 1350 MW by 2007 and by 2700 MW by 2010. Canada
is a signatory of the Kyoto Treaty with emission reduction target
of 6% from 1990 levels by 2012. There is considerable uncertainty
about future fuel prices of natural gas which strongly influences
the marginal cost of electricity. It is expected that gas prices will
decline by as much as 30% by 2010. Overall, given environmental and
economic advantages of hydropower and importance to regional economy
the overall value of hydropower is expected to increase in the next
value of energy estimated in the SVM may well underestimate the future
value and almost certainly will not overstate its future worth.
hydropower is not available, it is replaced with other forms of electricity.
However, as noted in secondary impacts these other forms will have
an impact on hydro prices and possibly air quality.
is some risk that the value of energy estimated in the SVM will underestimate
the value of future production. Substantial changes to the pattern
of water supply experienced in the past century could reduce the dependable
capacity of these plants and capacity benefits are not directly addressed
in the SVM.
hydro prices especially higher market prices.
Osinski, John Ching and Sylvain Robert
|Municipal and Industrial Water Uses
millions residents on Lake Ontario and Upper St. Lawrence (both Ontario
and the US) and 2.3 millions residents on the Lower St. Lawrence River
that rely on system for water. No production value to water, but very
high social, political and economic costs if water not provided.
Performance Indicators: 1) Water Quality Infrastructure Costs Avoided
(LSL) - based on cost of upgrading municipal drinking water treatment
plants to treat taste and odor compounds. 2) Water Supply Infrastructure
Costs Avoided (LSL) - based on costs required to adapt plants to lower
than critical levels.
low water level for 1 QM over three consecutive years is needed to
activate water quality taste and odor PI. This PI assumes a clear
link between water level and severe taste and odor problems. Infrastructure
costs are based on estimations to build a new intake structure.
||Based on costs avoided to
wells, groundwater contamination and sewage overload were evaluated
but not represented as performance indicators in the SVM as the impacts
were found to be marginal. In addition, there were no significant
impacts identified for Lake Ontario.
values calculated for the SVM consider the nominal capacity of the
plants, thus taking into account the future population growth (for
the existing plants). Impacts were evaluated for the actual Seaway
use of water for municipal and other purposes is not expected to change
significantly in near future.
is expected that any new plants would be designed for greater variability
solutions to relieve at least part of the problem would likely be
implemented such as lowering water demand.
levels could create a crisis condition for Montreal.
required beyond stochastic and climate change scenarios
Carriere and Benoit Barbeau. Reviewed by Denis Peloquin.